The IMF remains “indulgent” towards Ukraine. The eighth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) is positive, with a number of Benchmarks postponed. Ukraine has received the ninth tranche of almost $500 million.

At the same time, the programme has been supplemented with new Benchmarks, including some that are quite “difficult” for Ukraine. Another review is needed this year, with almost $1.5 billion at stake.

The EU has applied “negative conditionality” for the first time. The price of failing to meet three indicators of Ukraine Facility for the Q1 2025 is €1.4 billion in lost funding. The indicators for the Q2 2025 are even worse: four indicators remain unfulfilled, which calls into question the receipt of another €1.27 billion in aid.The lag in the implementation of both programmes raises the question of revising and updating them while maintaining the ambitious reform agenda. In particular, discussions are underway on a new IMF programme and changes to Ukraine Facility.

The logic of Ukraine’s key partners — “money in exchange for reforms” — is to stimulate changes that are critically needed by Ukraine itself. And this logic will only intensify.

The IMF programme and Ukraine Facility are markers of trust for other external partners. They remain important for coordinating and securing other international support.

Losing momentum in reforms threatens not only progress towards EU membership, but also the very survival of the state. The issue of covering the budget deficit is already acute this year. Priority expenditures depend on external financing.

The loss of fiscal stability is a real risk for a country fighting a war of attrition. Delays in reforms or even hints of a rollback (e.g., attempts to limit the independence of anti-corruption institutions) could have fatal consequences.Change is possible if reforms are put back on the political agenda. And they should be implemented not so much “for partners” as for ourselves.